Executive Summary Forecast error is often presented as a cut and dried affair. Our research shows that forecast error is measured much differently than generally known. Video Introduction: How is Forecast Error Measured in All Dimensions in Reality? Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) A brief synopsis of how forecasting error measurement goes…
Executive Summary It is often stated that AI will significantly improve forecast accuracy. These AI proponents seem to assume that it will be a simple matter to measure AI’s net improvement on forecasting. Video Introduction: Is It Possible to Know the Improvement from AI Without Knowing the Forecast Error? Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched…
Executive Summary Planning buckets selecting should be a tested setting in forecasting systems, but normally is not. We cover how to set the forecasting planning bucket. Video Introduction: How to Understand Error Checking Variable Forecast Planning Buckets Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) Some companies forecast using a weekly planning bucket, others monthly….
Executive Summary The percent forecast error is commonly calculated in a problematic way. We cover the proper forecast error measurement in the time dimension. Video Introduction: Forecast Error Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) Not much thought is given to this topic, yet companies’ forecast errors are normally measured based on a month….
Executive Summary MAPE, or Mean Absolute Percentage Error, is a method of forecast error calculation that removes negatives from the equation. The MAPE calculation must be weighed to obtain a view of the actual forecast error in relation to the overall forecast database. Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) MAPE, or Mean Absolute Percentage…
Executive Summary Areas that roll into forecast accuracy should be separately measured. Forecast errors can be used to provide a direction for improvement. Video Introduction: Forecast Improvement Estimation Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) There is a lot of poor quality advice on how to improve forecast accuracy. For example, software vendors tend…
Executive Summary DP has problems with MAPE, and it shows incorrectly in DP when there are errors. We cover an example of what DP does to calculate the MAPE. Introduction to MAPE Forecast Error in DP with Zeros On several accounts now, clients I have worked with have had problems getting the best fit functionality…
Executive Summary The importance of having an honest and correct measurement or forecast accuracy or forecasting accuracy. How the error is measured. Video Introduction: How to Best Measure Forecast Error Text Introduction (Skip if You Watched the Video) The vast majority of companies are unhappy with their forecast accuracy or forecasting accuracy. However, many of…