Comments on Brightwork Articles on Crostons in Forecasting

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Executive Summary

This article contains comments from articles on crostons in forecasting.

Introduction

These comments are in response to the articles on crostons in forecasting.

Comment #1: Brian Varney

Hello,

I am trying to emulate a Croston by using exponential smoothing on the size and interval components. I seem to get success in matching SAS’ High Performance Forecasting package except for one situation so far. The situation is when there are multiple leading zeros. In this situation the size component matches but not the interval component. Do you know of any special rules about handling a Croston when there are multiple leading zeros in the demand data?

Thanks, Brian

Brian,

I can’t say that I do. I think I would use the standard Croston’s result from the package I was using.

I think the question to ask also is what is the point of making the effort? This article above describes the opinion of myself and Wayne Fu that Croston’s does not add very much benefit, and only adds benefits in very limited applications. Croston’s performance can be matched with much simpler forecasting methods.

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