How Accurate is the US Claim Against Iran on the Saudi Arabian Missile Attack?

Executive Summary

• The US and Saudi Arabia have accused Iran of attacking the oil fields.
• There is a much simpler explanation which the US refuses to acknowledge.

Introduction

The US and Saudi Arabia both pointed the finger at Iran for a missile attack on Saudi oil fields on September 14th, 2019. We review the undeclared background around the attack and evaluate the accuracy of the explanations by the US and Saudi Arabia.

Background

The primary media coverage of the missile attack repeated what the CIA and Pentagon told them.

There was no interest in questioning anything provided to CBS by US military and intelligence sources. CBS and the other US networks are strongly connected to the US defense intelligence system. They employ ex-CIA and Military employees as “analysts.” This was shown very clearly when the US networks did nothing to question the information coming from the CIA/Pentagon on Iraq.

ABC News employs an ex-general currently sitting on the board of directors of the defense contractor Raytheon. This is never declared when this ex-general provides his “analysis” on the network. This means that ABC News is deliberately not disclosing this information even though they know it is disqualifying for this ex-general to also be on the network.

The credibility of any major media outlet to cover any foreign conflict has been destroyed due to their profit maximization and their cozy relationship with US military and intelligence agencies.

The Background That Was Not Covered by the Major Media Outlets

The US has been searching for several years for some excuse to attack Iran. Furthermore, the US and Saudi Arabia have been engaging in a little covered war against Yemen that has involved many bombings and an attempt to starve the population into capitulating. There are 3 million Yemenis that have been forced to flee and 15 million that are on the brink of starvation.

This article explains how the Saudis and the Gulf state coalition are engaging in siege warfare against Yemen. It also shows how much Saudi money is influencing US policy. The traditional view is that Saudi Arabia is a US puppet. However, with Saudi Arabian lobbying, it is difficult to see who is the puppet and who is the puppeteer. The US uses its influence with the UN to pass sanctions against Saudi Arabia’s enemies. Muhammed Bin Salman is well known to have said to other people close to him that…”I have Jared Kushner wrapped around my finger.” With Trump opening eight businesses in Saudi Arabia, this has wholly passed without commentary in the major US media. My analysis is that nothing relating to cross-influence with Saudi Arabia is considered noteworthy. This means that any degree of influence can pass from the US to Saudi Arabia or vice versa, and it is deemed to be unworthy of commentary. This means that the US intelligence services are delighted with high degrees of coordination and cooperation between these two countries. 

This topic of siege warfare is also explained in the following quotation.

For over two-and-a-half years, the United States has supported Saudi Arabia in a war against the Houthi movement in Yemen. The war has created the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world and threatens to turn into the largest famine in decades. – Brookings

A significant reason for the starvation is that Saudia Arabian bombing has been targeted explicitly toward food supply targets, and Saudi Arabia is also embargoing the Yemenis. These are war crimes under the UN Charter. The US is aware of all of this and is supporting Saudi Arabia not only 100% in its military tactics, but also in clamping down on international coverage of these activities. See the video where more information on these topics is provided.

This illustrates how utterly devoid US foreign policy is of ethics as if yet another example was necessary. This conflict was supported by Obama, that nice man who wears a polo shirt very well and who everyone considers a gentleman, and many would like to be invited over to his house for dinner. And it has been continued by Trump. It also shows that real humanitarian crises are ignored. In contrast, fake humanitarian crises, such as the “concern” for a future plight concocted by the US and France to set up a pretext for bombing Libya has to be fake.

Historical Animosity Between Saudi Arabia and Yemen

The fighting with what is now known as Saudi Arabia goes back to the 1930s, which is when Saudi Arabia was formed and when the Ottoman Empire receded from the region. The Houthis in Yemen, which took credit for the attack, are naturally opposed to both Saudi Arabia and the US because historically, the US has supported previously corrupt regimes in Yemen, as explained in the following quote.

The Houthis emerged as a Zaydi resistance to Ali Abdullah Saleh (the leader of Yemen) and his corruption in the 1990s led by a charismatic leader named Hussein al Houthi, from whom they are named. They charged Saleh with massive corruption to steal the wealth of the Arab world’s poorest country for his own family, much like other Arab dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria. They also criticized Saudi and American backing for the dictator. – Brookings

Saudi Arabia would like to impose Sunni Wahhabism on Shiite Yemen, and both Saudi Arabia would like to support a top-down corrupt regime in Yemen versus the Houthis. The reputation of the US in Yemen was further damaged by the illegal invasion of Iraq. This is covered in the following quotation.

The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 deeply radicalized the Houthi movement, like it did many other Arabs. It was a pivotal moment. The Houthis adopted the slogan: “God is great, death to the U.S., death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam,” – Brookings

The Houthis rose against the Ali Abdullah Saleh.

After 2003, Saleh launched a series of military campaigns to destroy the Houthis. In 2004, Saleh’s forces killed Hussein al Houthi. The Yemeni army and air force was used to suppress the rebellion in the far north of Yemen, especially in Saada province.

The Saudis joined with Saleh in these campaigns. The Houthis won against both Saleh and the Saudi army, besting them both again and again. For the Saudis, who have spent tens of billions of dollars on their military, it was deeply humiliating. – Brookings

What should be noted is that all of the military hardware is of US origin. When it is used by Saudi Arabians its seems to have feeble capabilities.

The Houthis opened direct civilian air traffic between Sanaa and Tehran, Iran promised cheap oil for Yemen, and rumors of more Iran-Houthi cooperation spread quickly. The main port at Hodeidah fell to the Houthi forces and they began marching to take Aden, the capital of the south and the largest port on the Indian Ocean.

For the Saudi king and his 29-year-old defense minister and son Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), it was a nightmare. A traditional enemy with ties to their regional foe was taking over the country on their southern belly. The strategic straits at the Bab al Mandab could be in the Houthis’ hands. It was a very difficult challenge for an untried team in the royal palace.

The Saudis chose to go to war to support Hadi and prevent the Houthi-Saleh rebellion from consolidating control of the country. Operation Decisive Storm began in March 2015, MBS taking the public lead in promising early victory for the Saudis. They forged a coalition to back them including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and other traditional Saudi allies. Two refused to join: Oman, Yemen’s neighbor, and Pakistan, whose parliament voted unanimously against the war. – Brookings

The Cost of the War with Yemen

This is curious because this means that Saudi Arabia began a war to interfere in what amounted to a civil war in Yemen. And it is not only Saudi Arabia but the Emirates and Bahrain. This is a lot of oil money that is intent on pushing the political power over to Saleh. And of course the US. Furthermore, the cost of the war is quite curious, as is explained in the following quotation.

The war costs Tehran a few million dollars per month, while it costs Riyadh $6 billion per month. – Brookings

This is a massive scale war. The run rate of $6 billion per month is considerably higher than what the US is spending in Afghanistan currently. It is higher than the total monthly run rate of the US in both Afghanistan and Iraq since the wars began. The idea that a conflict of this magnitude would get close to no US media coverage makes one ask the question of why.

If you were to poll most Americans and many Europeans and people in Asia and other parts of the world outside of the Middle East, it is unlikely that most would know that a) there is a war in Yemen and b) who is fighting in the conflict.

Keeping This War Quiet in the US Media

The US does not want this story covered, and therefore the US major media outlets comply but not providing it with coverage. Thus, when the missile attack was presented through US outlets, it was presented as if the war against Yemen is not currently occurring. This makes two wars, one against Yemen and a second against Syria that are either little or barely covered in the US media. And that does not include the current sanctions being applied to Iran and the desired war with Iran.

This war is covered in the following quotation.

With the spectacular attack on Abqaiq, Yemen’s Houthis have overturned the geopolitical chessboard in Southwest Asia – going as far as introducing a whole new dimension: the distinct possibility of investing in a push to drive the House of Saud out of power.

Blowback is a bitch. Houthis – Zaidi Shiites from northern Yemen – and Wahhabis have been at each other’s throats for ages. This book is absolutely essential to understand the mind-boggling complexity of Houthi tribes; as a bonus, it places the turmoil in southern Arabian lands way beyond a mere Iran-Saudi proxy war. – Asia Times

The number of countries that the US is currently at war within the Middle East, or in conflict with, or recently at war with is quite large.

This includes.

• Iraq
• Afghanistan
• Libya
• Syria
• Yemen
• Iran

We did not declare war in a single of these instances. The US has dropped the pretense to even get approval from Congress to engage in military conflict. This has become the sole province of the US President, who does not have the legal authority to declare war under the US Constitution.

What Have the Houthis Been Doing Recently?

Something else left out by the US major media outlets as been that the Houthis have repeatedly been attacking Saudi Arabia for months as retaliation against the bombing of Yemen.

Even before Abqaiq, the Houthis had already engineered quite a few attacks against Saudi oil installations as well as Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports. In early July, Yemen’s Operations Command Center staged an exhibition in full regalia in Sana’a featuring their whole range of ballistic and winged missiles and drones.

The situation has now reached a point where there’s plenty of chatter across the Persian Gulf about a spectacular scenario: the Houthis investing in a mad dash across the Arabian desert to capture Mecca and Medina in conjunction with a mass Shiite uprising in the Eastern oil belt. That’s not far-fetched anymore. Stranger things have happened in the Middle East. After all, the Saudis can’t even win a bar brawl – that’s why they rely on mercenaries. – Asia Times

Saudi Arabia stated that the missiles came from Iran, but the following quotation contradicts this proposal.

The only missile parts shown by the Saudis so far come from a Yemeni Quds 1 cruise missile. According to Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Sana’a-based Yemeni Armed Forces, “the Quds system proved its great ability to hit its targets and to bypass enemy interceptor systems.”

My conversations with sources in Tehran over the past two years have ascertained that the Houthis’ new drones and missiles are essentially copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen itself with crucial help from Hezbollah engineers. – Asia Times

The most likely explanation is that they were converted SCUD missiles, as explained in the following quotations.

Short-range tactical ballistic missiles including the Soviet Scud-B and C, North Korean Hwasong 5 and 6, and the Soviet Tochka – as well as rockets – continue to be launched from Yemen into Saudi Arabia – a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. Houthi forces also appear to have taken Soviet SA-2 SAM missiles and re-worked them as effective anti-ground targets, dubbing the new missile “Qaher-1.”

Yemeni security forces purchased many of these missiles in the 1990s and early 2000s from North Korea before being captured in the past few years by Houthi rebels.[3] As such the proliferation threat comes not from official Yemeni security forces, but from Houthi insurgents and their alleged sponsors – Iran and Hezbollah – who have seized power amid the chaos of Yemen’s plunge into civil war. – Missile Advocacy Defense Initiative

And this..

In fact, the Yemeni Air Force had Scud missiles for decades before the government collapsed in 2015, and technicians to service them. Some, maybe most of those technicians threw in their lot with the Houthis, and upgraded those Scuds by cutting them in half and inserting a larger fuel tank in the middle.

It changed their flight characteristic and made them very inaccurate, but it did extend their range enough to hit targets all over southern and eastern Saudi Arabia. And by mid-2017 the Houthis, who controlled most of Yemen, were making their own improved copies known as Burkan missiles.

But was it really the Houthis? At this point there is no clear evidence either way, but it could have been. They certainly have the motive, and they may have the technology. They have used small drones in previous air strikes, and there are bigger drones available commercially that could do the damage seen at the Saudi facilities.

One apparent flaw in the Houthi theory is that there are no civilian drones capable of flying the almost 800 km from Yemen to the Saudi targets, but that’s not really necessary. Most of the land around the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities is open desert, and launching the drones for 25 to 50 km away would escape detection unless the Saudis were actively anticipating such an attack.

Who would launch them? There are a million Yemenis resident in Saudi Arabia, plus 2 million to 3 million Saudi citizens who suffer severe discrimination because they follow the Shiite version of Islam. There are even Sunni Saudi citizens (mostly Islamists) who are sufficiently disaffected to attack the regime directly. – Japan Times

These SCUD missiles have been mostly ineffective until the attack against the Saudi oil field, as explained in the following quotation.

Saudi missile defense systems in conjunction with preventative coalition air strikes against missile stockpiles have proved largely effective at negating the Houthi missile threat: Patriot Pac-2 and Pac-3 missile placements have shot down incoming Yemeni missiles with nearly 100% success. However, despite the success of missile defense systems for Saudi Arabian defense, ballistic missiles continue to proliferate to dangerous actors in Yemen and remain a threat to Saudi Arabia and the surrounding region. – Missile Advocacy Defense Initiative

Ignoring the Most Likely Culprits to Pivot to Iran

Rather than note that the Houthis have repeatedly been attacking Saudi Arabia, the US (publicly) dismissed the fact that the Houthis took credit for the attack under the logic that the previous Houthis attacks had not been sufficiently accurate.

The accusation against Iran was provided by Mike Pompeo, who can be seen in this video bragging about how much he lies, and that it is also part of the CIA culture to lie. 

This video covers the lack of evidence for the attack coming from Iran. No major media outlet covered any of this information — preferring to repeat the talking points from the CIO and Pentagon. The US provided no evidence for how they determined the missiles came from Iran, and no major US media outlet asked for any. 

This was a missile launched from Yemen in Saudi Arabia in Jan of 2018. So Saudi Arabia has missiles launched at it from multiple countries within a year? 

Secondly, this video entirely leaves out that Yemen is at war with Saudi Arabia. CNN makes it appear as if Yemen fired this missile as an act of unprovoked aggression on the part of Yemen. Is this the story of CNN? That Yemen is shooting missiles at Saudi Arabia for no reason and no cause?

This is as irresponsible and mind-controlled as media can get. CNN is functioning as the state television network for the US government.

Saudi Arabia is presented as showing restraint against these unrelenting missile firings. This would be like pointing out that the US was bombing Germany, without also noting that the two countries were involved in WW2 at the time. One can certainly debate whether the US bombings of Germany were overkill, whether they killed civilians for absolutely no good reason — but you cannot understand the bombings without also realizing the bombings were not carried out during peacetime.

Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen with US planes without any of the major US media entities even noticing. This bombing has killed tens of thousands and, with the impending starvation that has been set in motion by the bombing — is set to kill millions. However, if a Yemeni missile is shot down and lands in the desert or kills several people, the US media egged on by the CIA and Pentagon sounds the alarm. Saudi Arabia called the attack, which they falsely attributed to Iran as..

An attack against the world.

However, no significant US media entity has asked Saudi Arabia representatives about their non-stop bombing of Yemen.

The US major media entities receive our Golden Parrot Award. Whatever the topic is international, the US major media entities can be relied upon to serve as a PR entity for the CIA and the Pentagon. 

Something else that it would have been helpful to explain to viewers is that Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting proxy wars through smaller countries in the Middle East for some time.

This video covers how Yemen is just the latest country caught up in a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Saudi Arabia is also supported by the US, while Iran, although to a far lesser degree, is supported by Russia. 

Another thing left out of the coverage is that Western countries are making a killing in selling armaments to Middle Eastern countries — that are being diverted to the conflict. This video describes the German and Austrian government’s indifference to German and Austrian designed weapons being diverted to Yemen against the laws of the UN. When asked to track how a German rifle ended up in Yemen, where it should not be, the German government refused to reply. The Swiss did respond as to the source of a Swiss grenade, and the source was found to be the UAE. The UAE is part of a coalition with Saudi Arabia against the Houthis. The US government’s response gaslight the investigation was pretending that they had not diverted arms to Yemen and pretending they were in favor of “stabilizing” Yemen. The UK similarly denied that any country but Iran had been diverting arms to Yemen — even though it is quite evident that this is entirely false. 

This indicates the UAE illegally transferred grenades to anti-Houthis forces. On the other side, Iran is illegally sending weapons to pro-Houthis forces called the Abu al-Abbas Brigades.

The video shows everything from small arms to mine-clearing vehicles that have been diverted from gulf countries to Yemen. This indicates that when arms are sold to these countries, they claim the right to divert these arms to any conflict in the Middle East that they see fit.

Another point of the video is that UAE backed Abu al-Abbas Brigades have engaged in armed conflict with Saudi Arabia backed Abu al-Abbas Brigades. Furthermore, the UAE backed Abu al-Abbas Brigades have also involved in armed conflict with the forces supported by the Qatari backed Muslim Brotherhood. This makes one wonder, even if the Houthis were defeated, how stable would Yemen become?

But it also explains and provides more background on the war in Yemen.

None of this background is essential to US media, because none of these topics were covered in the major US media outlets.

• The first video which showed how Saudi Arabia and Iran fight proxy wars through smaller countries was produced by Vox, which is a successful US media entity, but not one of the largest ones.
• The second video was published by DW Documentary, which is a German television station.

Conclusion

The US has presented no evidence that the attacks came from Iran, and it makes little sense for Iran to do this as Iran is quite aware that the US is looking for any excuse or pretext to attack them. Secondly, Saudi Arabia has had missiles shot at it for some time, from Yemen.

They did come from Iran in that the Houthis may have received technical support from Iran to either convert the missiles or other technical assistance, but this is not the same thing as the Iranians launching the attack. Furthermore, Yemen is being bombed by Saudi Arabia with in-flight refueling support and, most likely, many other types of support from the US. What would one expect the Houthis in Yemen to do? To not attempt to retaliate against Saudi Arabia. Secondly, Saudi Arabia is not only engaging in an illegal war in Yemen, but it is also interfering with Yemen’s civil war.

Pivoting the Blame to Iran as Part of a False Flag

A false flag operation usually is when an aggressor creates a fake attack or incident that they then blame on an opponent, which then gives them the excuse to attack their opponent. Attacks should be viewed with suspicion when the attacking country is far weaker than the country that is attacked. However, a false flag can also be when no attack happens, but an imaginary attack is claimed. This is what happened in the Gulf of Tonkin. The report is that a sonar operator “thought” they saw a torpedo on his instruments. This phantom torpedo was reported as a real torpedo and lead to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, and the beginning of the Vietnam War.

In this case, it looks like the US and Saudi Arabia simply took advantage of an attack by Houthi Rebels to blame a country the US is trying to build a case for attacking, which is Iran. Hawks within the Trump Administration attempted to get Trump to retaliate against Iran for shooting down a drone that was flying in Iranian airspace illegally and only shot down the drone after warning the US twice about this drone. Through multiple events spaced out through time, the US defense establishment is attempting to box in Trump into ordering a military strike against Iran.

This pivot of the attacker also helps the US and Saudi Arabia hide the war in Yemen. Therefore the pivot has two benefits to the US and Saudi Arabia.

Why Are Many Major European Countries Going Along with this Story?

Curiously, while the story of an attack from Iran does not appear credible, it is not only the US and Saudi Arabia that have blamed Iran but also Britain, Germany, and France. None of these countries provided evidence or did anything but repeat the US and Saudi Arabia accusations. And they have asked Iran to begin negotiation with Iran, even though Iran has previously stated they won’t negotiate while being placed under sanctions. This indicates that these countries do not have independence from US influence when it comes to the question of Yemen or Iran.

This video is produced by Al Jazeera, which is 100% funded by the Qatari government. Unsurprisingly it is anti-Houthis and anti-National Salvation Government of Yemen. Observe that the interviewer does not reveal Qatar’s involvement in the conflict, proposing it is only a proxy war with Saudi Arabia and Iran. 

This video shows that the US is actively involved in supporting the bombing of Yemen. The US is not dropping bombs, but they are refueling the Saudi Arabian planes (also sold to Saudi Arabia by the US) that are performing the bombing.

All of this is an outrage and sets a new level of dishonesty on the part of the US.

If the US is going to do this, the US needs to be honest about it, and make the case to the US voters that Yemen poses a threat to US security and that they should approve a declaration of war against Yemen. Most Americans have no idea the US is actively supporting bombing operations over Yemen. This also means that the US is in part responsible for the 15 million people that are close to starvation and the 3 million that have had to flee their homes.

References

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/saudi-oil-attacks-latest-updates-190916102800973.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-leaders-join-u-s-in-blaming-iran-for-saudi-oil-attacks-urge-new-deal-11569280372

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/article/how-the-houthis-overturned-the-chessboard/

*https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/12/18/who-are-the-houthis-and-why-are-we-at-war-with-them/

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/09/17/commentary/world-commentary/houthi-rebels-capable-launching-saudi-strikes/#.XYtfN5NKhQY

https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/yemen/

*https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/missile-proliferation/yemen/