Executive Summary

• This is the Brightwork Research & Analysis software rating series.
• We rate both the software and estimate the risk of implementing each application.

MUFI Rating & Risk for ToolsGroup SO99 (Forecasting)

MUFI: Maintainability, Usability, Functionality, Implement ability

Vendor: ToolsGroup (Select For Vendor Profile)

Introduction

ToolsGroup is a software vendor mainly known for its inventory optimization and multi-echelon planning software for supply planning. However, while less known for the forecasting functionality of their SO99 product, it is a competent application.

Application Detail

ToolsGroup, in everything that it does, is very focused on what is known as stochastic modeling. This means modeling in a way that represents the variable nature of reality. This comes across in their forecasting application and is displayed in the following screenshot.

Most forecasting applications have a single line representing the forecast. ToolsGroup’s S099 application produces a range of values indicating the probabilistic nature of the forecast.  This is a very innovative concept and gets people thinking of a forecast as not a single value.

ToolsGroup has a lovely seasonality management functionality, which creates a seasonality index, which helps adjust the forecast up or down based on the indices. A fractional value below 1 for indices, such as in October (.80), brings the forecast down – a fractional value above 1 for indices, such as February (1.03), brings the forecast up. Some forecasting applications have similar functionality. However, ToolsGroup regularly displays a combination of ease of use along with high sophistication.

Lifecycle Planning in ToolsGroup SO99

Supersession is the substitution of one product for another product. In lifecycle planning, this often involves phasing out one product and replacing it with a newer version. Seeing the demand for both products in an integrated way is one of the challenges. ToolsGroup has made this very clear in its user interface, so I wanted to include them in this section.

ToolGroup can show both the phased-out and phased-in products on the same screen. See below and notice the transparent portion of the block graphs.

If the selected item supersedes another item (i.e., it assumes the demand of the superseded item in addition to its own). The demand bar on the graph displays the original demand for the selected item (solid green bar) and the acquired demand associated with the superseded item (green perimeter with no fill): the superseded demand. – Kristen Nordstrom, ToolsGroup

ToolsGroup SO99 and Lumpy Demand

Of the vendors I have analyzed, probably the one (that does not specialize in service parts) with the most significant focus on demand intermittency is ToolsGroup. This is consistent with ToolsGroup ‘s orientation towards detailed planning, as is demonstrated in the screenshot below:

Notice that with ToolsGroup, the lumpiness shows in the demand history. However, the future lines in purple and blue are very long. This is called the prediction interval, the range over which a forecast is likely to fall. On a lumpy product like this one, notice how broad the range is when compared to the more predictable demand pattern below:

The more predictable item has a smaller range of values. It is inherently more forecastable. ToolsGroup’s interface allows me to demonstrate a basic concept of forecasting, which is what an excellent user interface should be able to do.

ToolsGroup’s SO99 is a forecasting application for companies that are very serious about forecasting.  It takes a different approach in some areas, and a good fit for ToolsGroup implementations will be companies that buy into the ToolsGroup vision. Some of the functionality for forecasting in ToolsGroup SO99 does not exist in any other supply chain forecasting application.

MUFI Scores

All scores out of a possible 10.

Vendor and Application Risk

ToolsGroup SO99 faces similar issues to the more heavyweight forecasting applications, which is one of being overwhelmed with the available functionality. Overall, the SO99 application is well designed, and it has some productivity-enhancing features ranging from how it performs lifecycle planning to substitution and supersession. The SO99 user interface is of good quality, easing user adoption. Users must become acclimated to the concept of probabilistic forecasts.

Likelihood of Implementation Success

This accounts for both the application and the vendor-specific risk. The total implementation risk in our formula is application + vendor + buyer risk. The buyer-specific risk could increase or decrease this likelihood and adjust the values below.

Risk Definition

See this link for more on our categorizations of risk. We also offer a Buyer Specific Risk Estimation as a service for those who want a comprehensive analysis.

Finished With Your Analysis?

To go back to the Software Selection Package page for the Demand Planning software category. Or go to this link for other analytical products for ToolsGroup SO99.

References