What Really Drives the Violent Crime Rate in US States?

Executive Summary

• The liberal assertion is that crime is primarily driven by poverty.
• We look at the crime statistics per state to evaluate this claim.

Introduction

It is common to state that crime is dependent upon poverty. What is rarely to never done is to perform an analysis by state and to correlate poverty with crime. This is what I will do in the article.

Our References for This Article

See this link if you want to see our references for this article and other related Brightwork articles at this link.

A Crime Map of the US States

The following is an overall crime map of the US.

There is no single crime statistic because crimes fall into different categories. Some states rank high for violent crime, like Illinois, while other states rank high for property crime, like New Mexico. Creating an index means applying some multiple to value each crime category, which is a subjective process. But we can, for brevity, use this composition estimate from World Population Review. I will dive into more detail regarding a specific crime category when appropriate. 

Reviewing the Entirely White States

As the US has become increasingly non-white, it has become challenging to find direct comparisons to non-whites. However, there are still some very white states. They are primarily in upper New England and in the Great Plains and West Virginia. West Virginia is an interesting case study state because it is 93.5% white. West Virginia is also the poorest state in the nation, which is very helpful to test the hypothesis regarding the relationship between poverty and crime. The upper areas mentioned have a lower average income than the national average.

There are a few things to note from the composite crime map above.

Upper New England, which is very white and has never had good economies, has a very low crime. Vermont is 23rd in the nation, and Maine is 36th, but New Hampshire is 8th so that we will leave out New Hampshire of the following bullet points as it is now above average in income.

• Both Maine and Vermont have very low crime rates.
• West Virginia also has a very low crime rate.
• All Great Plains states have low crime rates, except for Nebraska, which, while 88% white, breaks the pattern by being worse than average in crime. However, Omaha, Nebraska, has the 2nd highest black murder rate in the US. So again, it seems that non-whites are driving most crime in that state.

I found quotes directly related to this article in multiple dimensions.

Though Nebraska’s 82,000 black residents make up about 4.5 percent of the state’s 1.8 million population, blacks have accounted for nearly 40 percent of the state’s homicide victims over the past three years. A black Nebraska resident during that span was 18 times more likely to be a victim of homicide than a white resident. That black-white disparity is much wider in Nebraska than the nation, where blacks are about seven times more likely to be a homicide victim. – Lex Ch

So, Nebraska has a particularly violent group of blacks versus other parts of the country.

There were noticeable drops in violence during months the program was in place, the former Omaha police chief said. Mayor Jim Suttle has been lobbying for more federal dollars, and other sources are being explored.

“Even as chief, I always felt violent crime was a symptom of poverty,” Warren said. “If we’re going to prevent violent crime, we have to start dealing with the causes, including under-education and lack of employment.”

That is curious because it seems Mayor Police Chief Warren should read this article. By reading this simple article, one should question the hypothesis that violent crime is a symptom of poverty.

There is no question that if Nebraska were to remove all blacks from the state, the crime rate would look much more like the rest of the Great Plains states.

Why is that first considered a controversial thing to say, and why can it not be said?

How Crime is Covered and Censored

The way crime is covered is an example of censorship.

I have the following quotes as examples.

Louisiana has the highest murder rate in the U.S. of 14.4 murders per 100,000 residents. Murders were more than twice as common in Louisiana as they were nationwide. Murders are disproportionately concentrated in urban areas, especially New Orleans. New Orleans has a murder rate of about 37 per 100,000 residents, one of the highest of any U.S. city, followed by Baton Rouge with a murder rate of 35.1. – World Population Review

New Orleans is 59.5% black.

Could this be why it has such a high murder rate?

Not according to this quote according to this quote, the murders are concentrated in urban areas.

Hmmm….is that code for something? Who lives in those urban areas?

Missouri has the fourth-highest murder rate of 11.3 murders per 100,000 residents. Murders in Missouri are disproportionately concentrated in metropolitan areas – about 90% of murders committed in 2017 in Missouri were committed in metropolitan areas. St. Louis and Kansas City are two of the most dangerous cities in the United States. In 2017, St. Louis had 205 murders and Kansas City had 150.

Most of Missouri’s crime takes place in East St. Louis and the black parts of Kansas City. Again, the quote said the crimes were committed in “metropolitan areas.” Yes, that is one way of putting it.

North Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Wyoming all have murder rates that are under one murder per 100,000 residents.

Hmmm, what do these states have in common? Does World Population Review not know?

• North Dakota: 86.9%
• Vermont: 94.2%
• New Hampshire: 93.1%
• Maine: 94.4%
• Rhode Island: 83.5%
• Wyoming: 92.5%

This averages to 90% white.

Does anyone question that if all these states expelled all non-whites, the crime rate would further decrease? I have not checked, but how was the US crime rate before 1965, when the country was 95% white? It sounds like it must have been much lower than it is today. So, while diversity is a strength (apparently), it isn’t when it comes to crime. The correlation is robust; the higher the white percentage of the population in the state, the lower the crime rate. I have provided further a covariance analysis for murder rates in the article What is the Most Predictive Variable for the US Murder Rate. In the article, I have identified the most predictive variable for the murder rate in a state. (Hint: it is not the poverty rate). Given all of this, it is curious that states are often critiqued for not being sufficiently “diverse.” However, the safest states with many other positive characteristics, such as community involvement, are predominantly white. And those states could further improve themselves by providing economic incentives for non-whites to leave those states. As I proved above, the number one way for Nebraska to improve its crime rate is to have the black population removed from the state. There is no possible statistical argument that it would not drastically improve the crime level in that state.

Furthermore, only one of these states, New Hampshire, has an income much higher than the national average. All these states’ combined average income is 28 out of 50, so slightly below the average.

This means that poverty does not correlate well with crime rates in the US. 

The Concentration of Gun Violence in the Black Population

Why is it so easy to predict a state's gun violence rate from the percentage of the population that is black?

The following table should make it obvious.

The reason is that gun violence is highly concentrated in the black population. This generalizes to other areas of the world. Unsurprisingly, the highly black Caribbean has very high levels of violence. 

The Foundational Assumption of the Poverty-to-Crime Correlation Argument

Under this liberal assertion, all people are the same, all cultures are the same, and they respond to different situations. This is never stated by those who make this claim, but it is assumed within the statement.

This assertion has no basis in evidence, and those who propose it never bother to prove that the assertion is true. Instead, they rely on social pressure and shaming tactics to obtain buy-in to the hypothesis. “Good people” believe this hypothesis; “bad people” do not. Curiously, those who assert this without evidence commonly claim to be “enlightened.” However, the term enlightened comes from the European Enlightenment of the 18th century. It is based upon rational principles, the core of which is the scientific method, which requires evidence to support a hypothesis.

It is not enlightening to believe in things without evidence. This is the core of religious thought, precisely what enlightenment thinkers of that time were rejecting.

What About Violent Crimes?

Some crimes don’t have a strong poverty driver that can logically be correlated to them. Murder does have a component of poverty in that many murders are due to the drug trade, which is a type of competition between drug gangs. However, other types of violent crimes, like rape, don’t track very well to a poverty motive and are more associated with impulse control and cultural thinking as well as the degree of law enforcement. For example, in the Gulf countries, the rape of visitors (i.e., noncitizens) is not prosecuted, which tends to have a negative correlation with rape.

It is very convenient for liberals to place all crimes in a bucket with a money motive, but many crimes do not have a money motive. White-collar crimes usually are not driven by poverty. Still, by greed — yet in addition to ignoring the topic of the relationship with crime, it is now unfashionable to correlate greed with crime.

How Websites Stay Away From Being Called Racist

Racism has been redefined as observing or performing analysis that notes differences between races. To keep from being called racist, the coverage of crime attempts to pretend there are no racial relationships. If they did not do this, they would be very quickly reprimanded.

A person might say..

How can you say race is related to crime — don’t you know that crime is driven by poverty?

The person saying this never bothers, proving that that is either a correlative factor or the most vital correlative factor. One is required to accept unproven assumptions — and if one does this, one receives approval. However, if one performs the analysis and does not support the hypothesis, the person is critiqued. Doesn’t the person know that an unproven hypothesis is the only possible explanation? Then typically, the person who performed the analysis is called “ignorant.” But wait, how did we all conclude that poverty is not only the predominant factor driving all crime but the only factor? 

What About White Collar Crimes?

One of the responses to the correlations presented above is the following.

Well whites are much more involved in white collar crime.

Compared to the primary crime drivers in the US, which are the Hispanic and black populations, that is true. But Hispanics and blacks (in predominantly white countries) are not often in positions where they can engage in white-collar crime.

However, let’s look at Latin America and Africa, which are rated as the most corrupt areas globally, according to transparency.org. Globally, the cost of property crime is small compared to the loss and theft of value through white-collar crime and corruption. However, countries, states, and regions never estimate the costs of white-collar crime and corruption. Why is that? I can think of many companies whose business model is based on fraud.

Therefore, it seems that when they have the opportunity, Hispanics and Africans also engage in corrupt dealings or white-collar crime at much higher rates than whites. South Africa has massively increased in corruption since the black-run ANC took over the country. Before the ANC took power, blacks and Indians (South Africa has a substantial Indian population) did not engage in white-collar crime. However, once they took power, the black-white-collar crime level became world-leading, and corrupt Indians also assisted it, as the Gupta scandal very neatly illustrates.

Secondly, in white-collar crime, whites are, again, not the leaders. Many people point to Wall Street, where large amounts of white-collar crime are perpetuated with little to no prosecution. This is true. However, what is left out is that around 1/2 of the people who work on Wall Street are Jewish. Jews have it written in the Torah and have followed through as a millennia practice to steal from non-Jews. In the Torah, it states.

To steal from the Goy (non Jew) is a virtue.

This long-standing reputation is why, if you read the book The Jewish Problem by Golding, it lays out in concrete terms how Jews were cheating their way up the ladder in Germany. It also makes an excellent case for their expulsion from Germany based on their white-collar crime and self-dealing pattern. Reading this book, the case against Jews is very strong, and I would also have agreed with the expulsion of Jews, given the evidence presented. Hitler’s point, and why he chose extermination, was that this was simply irresponsible and kicking the can down the road. It imposed unethical Jews on other countries. This explanation by the website AnneFrank.org shows how false the explanation of Hitler’s logic regarding the Jews generally is.

Hitler was born in Austria in 1889. He developed his political ideas in Vienna, a city with a large Jewish community, where he lived from 1907 to 1913. In those days, Vienna had a mayor who was very anti-Jewish, and hatred of Jews was very common in the city. During the First World War (1914-1918), Hitler was a soldier in the German army. At the end of the war he, and many other German soldiers like him, could not get over the defeat of the German Empire. The German army command spread the myth that the army had not lost the war on the battlefield, but because they had been betrayed. By a ‘stab in the back’, as it was called at the time. Hitler bought into the myth: Jews and communists had betrayed the country and brought a left-wing government to power that had wanted to throw in the towel.

Hitler did think Germany was stabbed in the back in WW1 by the Jews, but the quote entirely leaves out the very well-explained logic that is found in the book The Jewish Problem and many other sources. Essentially, this dominant narrative is that Hitler was just insane, and there was no reason for antisemitism. The quote also misstates how long antisemitism goes back. Anti-semitism goes not simply to the late 1880s but goes back thousands of years. The Jews were expelled from Rome in around 50 AD. So, add ancient Romans to the long list of anti-semites.

It is curious how almost everyone who complains about anti-semitism refuses to address the points brought up in this book. Jews were required to wear yellow hats and be registered when visiting Venice. Why do people suppose that so many countries have found it necessary to keep track of Jews?

Yes, despite the history of Jews, which is very well and comprehensively explained in documents separated by hundreds of years, when Wall Street theft is showcased, it is always discussed as what white men do. This is because it is off-limits to discuss negative behaviors if those behaviors are exhibited in far higher proportionality than whites. (Recall that Jews are only around 2% of the US population).

Another group that has developed an overwhelming reputation for white-collar criminality and breaking labor laws in the US is Indians. Yet, as they are not white, very few people are willing to call out this established pattern for fear of being racist. This allows Indians to continue their white-collar crime with few repercussions.

The Dominance of Blacks in the Violence Statistics in the US

Why Other Races Flee Black Areas

Whites and other races flee from blacks for very good reasons. In the US blacks are the number one racial group that victimizes other racial groups with violent crime. Black culture is harmful to both blacks and anyone else who is around blacks. Blacks themselves know this. However, they don't usually admit it to other races and prefer to blame everything else but themselves. For blacks to effectively race scam -- they have to hold the position that blacks behave the same and deserve the same outcomes as other races. 

All Races Are the Same?

This is a part of the root of the problem. This proposal that all races are the same had no evidence to support it, yet it was asserted because it was politically correct. It was an appealing lie to believe because it "felt good."

Once this idea took hold, it now became a platform to say that all races should have the same things, and this has primarily been interpreted as non-whites invading white spaces and countries and taking their society from them.

Blacks want white outcomes, but because they can't produce white outcomes on their own, they have to invade white societies to obtain them, and their tool is not producing these things themselves but by taking them through living in white-originated societies.

The Repeating Pattern Seen Everywhere Blacks Exist

When blacks move into a neighborhood, that area becomes undesirable. Shoplifting increases, violence increases, and sexual assault increases. This leads to stores closing and a downward spiral for that area. The higher the percentage of the population that is black, the more predominant this and many other negative behaviors become as they begin to behave in conformance with black culture and expectations rather than conforming. 

What Would Happen if the US Had No Blacks?

Blacks are a massive civilization threat to any country, society, or city that accepts them. All countries, except white countries, have figured out not to have blacks live in their borders. 

Here is some food for thought: “What if all the Blacks suddenly left America, which is 13.3% of the total U.S. population?” and these statistics would improve. 

• Amount of people in poverty would drop - 34%
• The prison population would go down - - 37%
• Welfare recipients would go down by - - - 42%
• Gang members would go down by - - - - - 53%
• Chlamydia cases would go down by - - - - - 54%
• Homelessness would go down - - - - - - - - 57%
• Syphilis would go down - - - - - - - - - - - - 58%
• AIDs & HIV would go down - - - - - - - - - - 65%
• Gonorrhea would go down - - - - - - - - - - 69%
• Average ACT scores would go up - - - - - - 5.5 points
• Average IQ would go up - - - - - - - - - - - - 7.4 points, (this is how much only 13% of the population in drags down IQ scores) This would put the U.S. 3rd in the world tied with Japan
• Average SAT scores would go up almost - - - 100 points
• The average income for Americans would go up over $20,000 a year

Blacks are major users of subsidies from the rest of the taxpaying population. This burden (some of which used to help blacks reproduce more blacks) would be lifted from the rest of the population

The effect on cities would be profound. All of the predominantly black cities from Detroit to East St Louis to Baltimore to Atlantic City, Wilmington Deleware -- every city would experience an immediate and radical improvement. 

Blacks as a Civilizational Threat

Blacks are a civilizational threat to any area, any city, and they seek to infiltrate white cities and countries because they have no ability to create functional societies, as I cover in the article What Happens When Blacks Take Over Management of Cities and Countries from Whites? Therefore, blacks need to infiltrate a society or city that is already built up by another group -- with the inevitable outcome that the area is ruined when a sufficient number of blacks are present.

Conclusion

The liberal and status quo factor for predicting crime, which is poverty, is not predictive. Just in this article, I demonstrated a far more predictive factor.

I could run a series of covariances to drive the point home and have more numerical support. However, the factor of race is so influential that I don’t need more than proportions, and relative proportions prove the case.